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गरिब देश कारमा सरर...

गरिब देश कारमा सरर...
by Rudra Pangeni 
अर्थ मन्त्रालय, भन्सार विभाग तथा राजश्व उठाउने कर्मचारी अक्सर आफँै गाडी किनेर चढ्दैनन् तर अघिल्लो हप्ता भृकुटीमण्डपमा जारी कार मेलाबाट सबैभन्दा बढी लाभान्वित उनीहरु नै भए। कसरी? कार मेलाले उनीहरुको ठूलो काम गरिदिएको छ किनकि सरकारले गत आर्थिक वर्ष २०७२/७३ मा मोटरसाइकल, कार तथा यातायातको साधन तथा मोटर पार्टपुर्जा आयातबाट मात्र ६० अर्ब ४६ करोड कमाई गरेको छ यो कुल सरकारको कमाई अर्थात् राजश्वको करिब १३ प्रतिशत हुन आउँछ। ती कर्मचारीको काम सघाइदिन्छन् यी मेलाले किनकि सरकारको आय बढाइदिन्छ, उनीहरुले मेहनत गर्नै नपर्ने। गाडी मेला वर्षमा २–४ पटक हुने हो भने ती निकायका कर्मचारीलाई ठूलै हाइसन्चो हुन्थ्यो होला। गाडीको राजश्व एकातिर राखिदिने भन्ने हो भने ती कर्मचारी छट्पटिन थाल्छन्।

भर्खरै सकिएको कार मेलामा करिब १२ सय कार बुकिङ भएछ। कसरी मुलुकमा गरिबी छ भन्ने? त्यत्तिकै राजस्व उठ्ने भएपछि अर्थ मन्त्रालय पनि ढुक्क। थोरै मानिसमात्र मोटाउने यो व्यवसाय पनि गजबकै रहेछ।

ती गाडीबाट फाइदा हुने अर्का वर्ग भनेका गाडी आयातकर्ता हुन्। सडकमा गाडी गुड्ने ठाउँ नै नभए पनि गाडी बेचिरहने उनीहरुको प्रतिस्पर्धा छ। गाडीको मूल्य सस्तो भए अझ कति भित्रन्थे होला? आयातकर्ता हरेक अर्थ मन्त्रीसँग गाडी आयातमा लाग्ने कर घटाउन सधँै खुसामद् गर्छन्। आयातकर्तालाई सोझै हुने आम्दानीबाहेक गाडी आयातले मुलुक धनी हुँदैन, सर्वसाधारणसम्म यसको आर्थिक प्रभाव लगभग शून्यप्रायः छ। आर्थिक क्रियाकलाप बढेको छैन, रोजगारी पनि दिँदैन। किनकि नेपालमा गाडीहरु एसेम्बलसमेत हँुदैन। इन्धनको खानी पनि छैन हामीसँग।
अर्को नमिल्दो कुरा भनेको तिनै निजी क्षेत्र (निर्माण व्यवसायी) हुन् जो बाटो बनाउने सरकारी ठेक्का लिन्छन्, एकाधलाई छाड्ने हो बने अधिकांशले कमसल बाटो बनाउँछन् अनि त्यही बाटोमा गाडी आयातकर्ताले आयात गरेको गाडी गुड्छन्। कमसल बाटोमा तेल बढी खपत हुन्छ। इन्धन प्रयोग दक्षता अझै कमजोर। निजी क्षेत्र वा व्यापारी वर्तमानमा मात्रै बाच्छन्, आज राम्रो बाटो बनाए भोलि विकास हुन्छ आफू पनि लाभान्वित होइन्छ भन्ने भविष्य देख्न सक्दैनन्।
गाडी मेलाबाट आम्दानी हुने अर्को वर्ग भनेको सञ्चारमाध्यम हुन्। गाडी मेलाका अवसरमा लगभग सबैले ज्याकेट (विज्ञापन) ओढ्न पाए। ओढ्न नपाउने मुर्मुराए। विज्ञापन नपाउने एक दैनिक पत्रिकाको मुख्य पृष्ठमा एक कम्पनीको गाडीको फोटोसहित 'खबरदार, फस्नुहोला नि!' भन्नेसम्मका समाचार पनि छापियो। त्यसकै भोलिपल्ट त्यही कारको फुल पेज विज्ञापन पाइहाल्यो त्यो पत्रिकाले। योभन्दा नांगो नाच के हुन सक्ला? यसले थाहा हुन्छ गाडीको विज्ञापनको महत्व। जे होस् चौथो अंगको भरपर्दो चाड बन्यो यो कार मेला। सबैजसो पत्रिकाले गाडी महिमाका विशेषांक छापे। गाडी किन्न उत्साहित गरे। यसबाट पनि सोझै लाभ तल्लो वर्गमा लगभग पुगेन।
कार मेला विज्ञापन व्यवसायीका लागि लगभग दशैं बन्यो। यसमा ठूला यिनेगिनेका विज्ञापन व्यवसायीले राम्रै कमाए। विज्ञापन एजेन्सीमा काम गर्ने कर्मचारीले केही ओभरटाइमको ज्याला पाए होलान्। त्यसबाहेक छापाखानाले काम पाए तर एजेन्सीमा काम गर्ने तथा छापाखानाका मजदुरले पनि खासै लाभ पाएनन्, तिनको तलब सुविधा बढेको छैन।
लाभ पाउने एउटा सानो समूह भने रहेछ है। त्यो हो भृकुटीमण्डपमा साजसज्जामा काम गर्ने मजदुरदेखि सुन्दरी (मोडेल) सम्मले काम पाए करिब एक हप्ता। अरुबेला खासै यस्तोखालको काम नपाउने मोडेलहरु ५ भन्दा बढीले एकहप्ता काम पाए। त्यत्तिकै संख्यामा त्ाल्ल्ाा वर्गका भरियाले काम पाएको अनुमान छ। ग्रिलवाला, बत्ती जडान गर्नेवाला, झाडुवाला, पेन्टर, फ्ल्ोक्स छाप्ने सेवाप्रदायकले काम पाए। कार मेलाको परिसरमा रेस्टुरेन्ट चलाउनेेले काम पायो। मेलाको अन्तिम दिन आयोजकले मेलाबाट मात्रै ३ अर्ब ५० करोडको २,३०० गाडी बुकिङ भएको जानकारी दिए। यसअघि नै वाग्मतीमा मात्र १ लाख ७० हजार गाडी थुप्रिसकेको छ, बाइकको संख्या ७ लाख ७५ हजार त छँदैछ। यो वार्षिक मेेलामा मात्र गाडी किनबेचको २० प्रतिशत कारोबार हुन्छ तर अर्थतन्त्रलाई चलायमान बनाउने एउटा त्यान्द्रो भनेको यही होला सायद।
मुलुकले गत वर्षमात्र ६६ अर्ब रुपियाँ गाडी तथा गाडीका पाटपुर्जामा खर्च गर्‍यो। आयातीत वस्तु खरिद गर्न विदेशी मुद्रा चाहिन्छ। खाडी मुलुकमा पसिना बगाउने दाजुभाइलेे विदेशी मुद्रा कमाइदिएकै छन्। गाडी आयातकर्तालाई त्यो मुद्रा दिँदा राष्ट्र बैंकका गभर्नरको मन कहिल्यै दुख्दैन। मुलुकको आवश्यकता पहिचान गरी सवारी साधन चलाउने, सार्वजनिक यातायात व्यवस्थित गर्ने, सिन्डिकेट तोड्ने हो भने अहिले भएको गाडीको एक तिहाईले पर्याप्त हुने कुरा जानकार बताउँछन्।
मध्यम र सम्भ्रान्त वर्गले प्रयोग गर्ने कारको कारोबार हुँदा यति न्यून समूह लाभान्वित हुने मुलुक सायदै नेपाल मात्रै होला। बैंकले पनि गाडी कर्जा प्यारो ठान्छ खेतका लागि दिइने ऋणभन्दा। किसान तथा गरिब वर्गको बैंकसम्म पहुँच छैन, खेती गर्नका लागि ऋण लिन गए बैंकले ठाडै नकार्छन् या झन्झटिलो प्रक्रिया देखाएर तर्साउँछन्। किसानले आयात प्रतिस्थापन गर्न सक्छन्। अर्थ मन्त्रालय तथा नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले बुझ्दै बुझेन। मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्रलाई जरैदेखि बलियो बनाउन सक्छन् तर कृषिमा औसत व्याजदर १२ प्रतिशत छ। कार किन्नेलाई ऋण दिन बैंकहरुले तँछाड मछाड गर्दै ओर्लिए। ब्याजदर ६ देखि ८ प्रतिशतमै राखे।
यो जति कुरीकुरी के हुन सक्छ मुलुकका लागि? अर्थ मन्त्रालय र राष्ट्र बैंक यस्तो कुरामा आँखा चिम्लेर बसेका छन्। गाडी किन्नेले अरुबेलाभन्दा करिब एकदेखि डेढ लाख रुपियाँसम्म सस्तो कार पनि पाए। कार किन्ने धनीमानीलाई सायद थाहा छैन होला उनीहरुले चढेको कार आयात गर्दा भन्सारमा कम मूल्य तोकेर राज्यलाई कति ठगिएको छ भन्ने कुरा। कार खरिद गर्दा कारको भन्सार मूल्य कति हो भनेर साध्ने गर्ने कि? प्रमाण माग्नूस्। तपाईँको प्रयासले कार चढ्नेहरु पनि धनी मुलुकका मानिस बन्नुहुनेछ होइन भने तपार्इँको ट्याग कार चढ्ने गरिब मुलुकबासीमै सीमित रहनेछ।
कृषि उत्पादन बढाएर अन्नपात, माछामासु फलफूल आयात प्रतिस्थापन गर्ने घोषणा दुई दशकदेखिका हरेक वार्षिक बजेट वक्तव्यमा छ। कृषिजन्य वस्तु आयात प्रतिस्थापन भएपछि मुलुकभित्रै कृषिजन्य उत्पादनको कच्चा पदार्थ प्रयोग गर्ने उद्योग फस्टाउँछन् अनि तिनले तिर्ने कर बढ्ने प्रक्षेपण सरकारको वार्षिक आम्दानी हिसाबमा कहीँ कतै देखिदैन। आयातबाटै सरकारको आम्दानी आउँछ अनि हाइसन्चो अर्थ मन्त्रालयलाई। आयातले मुलुक परनिर्भर हुनुको प्रमुख कारणमा यो मनस्थिति जिम्मेवार छ। सहरी क्षेत्रबाट घर बहाल कर न्यून मात्र उठेको छ। गाडी आयात भइरहे उनीहरुलाई हाइसन्चो, धनी वर्गले आयकर, सम्पत्ति कर छल्छन् अर्थ मन्त्रालय कानमा तेल हालेर बसेको छ । कर चुस्त ढंगले उठाउन सकेमात्र मुलुकको राजश्व रु. ४८२ अर्बबाट ७०० अर्ब बढी अहिलेकै अवस्थामा पुग्न सक्छ। यसले मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्र दिगो बनाउने तथा विकासमा स्रोत व्यवस्थापन धेरै सहज हुनेछ।  नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय पनि बढ्छ।
कार मेलामा भएको कार बिक्रीलाई व्यंग्य गर्दै मधुकर उपाध्यायले टि्वट गरे– 'कार मेलामा हजारदेखि बाह्र सयसम्म गाडी बुकिङ भएछ। अर्थतन्त्र कमजोर कसरी भन्ने?' कार बिक्री र मुलुकको अवस्था पटक्कै मिल्दो लाग्दैन। अझ भनौँ, गरिबी खासै नघटे पनि कारको मूल्य घट्दै गइरहेको छ। नेपालमा समाजवाद छ भन्नेहरुलाई कुरीकुरी लाग्नुपर्ने हो। तल्लो वर्गको जनजीविकाका लागि आवश्यक न्यूनतम आधारभूत वस्तुहरु जस्तै दाल चामल, खाने तेल, लत्ताकपडा सबै चीजमा मूल्य आकासिँदो छ वर्षैपिच्छे। तर कारको मूल्य सस्तिँदैछ। मुलुकभरि सर्वसाधारण कोचिएर चढ्नुपर्ने सार्वजनिक बस, अनि भाडादरमा तथा दशैताका चिनी, खाने तेलमा मूल्य बढाउने नाफाखोरी सिन्डिकेटवाला यो कार किनबेचमा छैनन् होला कि? हुन्थे पनि कसरी यसमा चाहिँ बढेन? किनकि कार धनीले मात्र प्रयोग गर्ने वस्तु हो। धनीहरुले ती बसमा कोचिएर हिँड्नुपर्दैन। ती बसमा कोचिएर हिँड्नुपर्नेहरु प्रधान मन्त्री, मन्त्री तथा सचिवको वरिपरि घुम्न पुग्दैनन्, सक्दैनन्। कार चढ्नेहरु प्रधान मन्त्री तथा नेताको आडमा गरिबको अत्यावश्यक वस्तु तथा सेवामा सिन्डिकेट लगाउँछन्। त्यसैले होला ती कार चढ्नेका आयु सार्वजनिक बस चढ्ने सर्वसाधारणको भन्दा बढी भएको!
लक्ष्मी ग्रुपले हुन्डाइका कार, चौधरी ग्रुपले सुजुकी, ज्योति ग्रुपले होन्डाका बाइक, सिप्रदी ट्रेडिङ्ले टाटाका गाडी अनि वैद्य अर्गनाइजेसनले टोयोटा कार ल्याएर बेच्छन् मात्र। ती गाडीको मुलुकभित्रै एसेम्बल गर्न सके हजारांै नेपालीले रोजगारी पाउने थिए, अर्थतन्त्रमा राम्रो टेेवा पुग्ने थियो। एसेम्बलको कुरा त चुइँक्क सुनिँदैन, केही गर्नुपर्ने कुरा गर्‍यो भने सरकारले यसो गरेन, त्यसो गरेन भन्ने थेगो नै भएको छ तिनको। चाहने हो भने मोटरसाइकल एसेम्बल तत्कालै सम्भव छ भन्छन् जानकारहरु तर यी साहूहरु केही गर्दैनन्। किनकि आम्दानीको ठूलो हिस्सा आयातबाट हुने गरेको छ। http://www.nagariknews.com/news/5565

Melamchi civil works contractor in cash-flow fix

Here we go, again

Size of remittance has ballooned and the country has become more dependent on India than ever before

People in Kathmandu may not have truly felt the effects of 40-day protest in Tarai until Tuesday. News reports indicating blockade by India was making rounds then. It has made people of Kathmandu panic. Sons ran to hoard petrol at gas stations while mothers crowded the grocery stores for foods and other essentials. This shows that the effects of blockade can be pervasive. This is because of Nepal's lopsided trade balance with India.

Nepal as a landlocked country has access to sea only via India. So Nepal imports worth nearly nine times more than it exports to the southern neighbor. In FY 2014/15, Nepal imported goods worth Rs 774.68 billion while export was Rs 85.31 billion. Import from India was worth Rs 491.65 billion while export to the southern neighbor was only Rs 55.86 billion; in other words, 64 percent of our trade is with India.

Government has cushioned itself on remittance, which also has driven consumerism but the national import-based economy has not benefited in real terms. Almost all entrepreneurs and business people have import portfolios as earning is fast and banks provide an easy finance. The more the size of remittance, the more the country became dependent on India. Nepal depends on petroleum imported and refined by India. The country's total earning by export is not enough to pay even the import bill of petroleum. Average import of petroleum in the past three fiscals is Rs 122 billion.

Bilateral relation with India is at its lowest in history and the real picture of our fragile situation is clearly visible. We are already in hot water. But these problems didn't develop in a single day, a single month or a year. Agenda of the fragile economy never came to fore as political leaders either knew little of it or were busy with their petty affairs and no one cared.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce and Supplies is these days among the least preferred ministries for leaders. Barring few, most commerce and supply ministers were Madhesh-based leaders and now the same leaders are protesting to cripple Nepali trade.

The country must realize the importance of self-dependence for ours is a landlocked country. Our strength is agricultural products. There is also an opportunity for earning foreign currency after value addition. Government could not retain youth in agriculture in the absence of appropriate technology. Nor is there market connectivity for agriculture produce and competitive supply chain. Due to various factors including energy, manufacturing industries have lost competiveness and agriculture output has declined. Youths migrated for jobs and dependence gradually increased and we became progressively weaker.

Tuesday's rumors should be taken as a wake-up call and policies and strategies devised to increase exports, but such endeavors should not be similar to those followed by Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) 2010, which has had little impact even with its identification of products with competitive advantage. We expected at least a minor rise in export of NTIS-listed 19 products, but to no avail. Export of silver jewelry, ginger, lentil and medicinal herbs have declined.

India blockaded Nepal in 1989. Recent events have refreshed those bad memories. It is high time we devised strategies to tackle the issue as well as employed the youth population. Nepal was net exporter of dozens of agro-products and finished goods but now we are importing the same items from India and other countries. Everything ranging from agro products to spare parts and from petroleum products to garments are imported from India. Government should look for more sustainable measures to keep the economy humming.

Back in 1989, India blockaded Nepal for over a year over the issue of Nepal purchasing arms from China without first consulting it. The relations became strained and the culmination was fall of Panchayat system; the King had to, eventually, accept multiparty parliamentary system. Nepal as a landlocked country had sought privileges of transit rights as UN charter and India's demand of a single treaty was rejected.

Soon after India's economic sanctions, our country experienced serious deficiencies of goods such as coal, fuel, oil, medicine, spare parts and other essentials. Although immediate effect in rural life was only reflected in shortage of salt and kerosene, I can now only imagine the impact on cities. The country's growth rate plummeted from 9.7 percent in 1988 to 1.5 percent in 1989, largely due to the blockade.

Following blockade rumors on Tuesday UCPN Maoist Pushpa Kamal Dahal made a farcical remark that Nepalis should ride bicycles if India stops petroleum. Nepali leaders use their heart more than their minds. Had Prachanda said that his party has decided to have a cycle lane in all the new roads, it would have made strategic sense. But the effect of a weeklong blockade today would be tantamount to the impact of over a year's blockade in 1989; our dependence on India has spiked multifold because Nepal has become net importer of rice, livestock and fruits from India. Dependence on petroleum, motor and machinery are unavoidable but we have never bothered to do anything even about the commodities we could produce in our own country. Without economic independence, political independence is meaningless.

The bill of import of agro products run to over Rs 100 billion a year, while school children still study that Nepal is an agricultural country. We imported toothpicks, a non-essential item, worth Rs 21.1 million in the fiscal year 2013/14. Rice worth Rs 55 billion were imported in the last three fiscal years. We produce and sell goods worth Rs 9 but import goods worth Rs 91 for every 100 rupees spent on foreign trade.

Had the youth not become migrant workers, our country would have witnessed a severe food shortage. But they would be toiling to produce food for self-sustainability. A sharp increase in imports but lack of progress in exports is our reality. Worse, exports have for the first time posted negative year-to-year growth.

Trade expert Krishna Raj Bajgain has written that Nepal's trade gap has widened after the introduction of each new trade policy. The phrase 'replace imports' has been coined, plans, and programs are prepared and budget is also spent every year. Small-scale enterprises and entrepreneurs offer the silver lining. There are opportunities for devising long-term planning, for example by downsizing import of petroleum products through greater harnessing of hydropower. But, hydropower, alas, is another failure story in Nepal.

The author is with Republica's business bureau
Twitter: @rudrapangeni

- See more at: http://www.myrepublica.com/opinion/story/28862/here-we-go-again.html#sthash.U1CxQ351.dpuf

Size of remittance has ballooned and the country has become more dependent on India than ever before

People in Kathmandu may not have truly felt the effects of 40-day protest in Tarai until Tuesday. News reports indicating blockade by India was making rounds then. It has made people of Kathmandu panic. Sons ran to hoard petrol at gas stations while mothers crowded the grocery stores for foods and other essentials. This shows that the effects of blockade can be pervasive. This is because of Nepal's lopsided trade balance with India.

Nepal as a landlocked country has access to sea only via India. So Nepal imports worth nearly nine times more than it exports to the southern neighbor. In FY 2014/15, Nepal imported goods worth Rs 774.68 billion while export was Rs 85.31 billion. Import from India was worth Rs 491.65 billion while export to the southern neighbor was only Rs 55.86 billion; in other words, 64 percent of our trade is with India.

Government has cushioned itself on remittance, which also has driven consumerism but the national import-based economy has not benefited in real terms. Almost all entrepreneurs and business people have import portfolios as earning is fast and banks provide an easy finance. The more the size of remittance, the more the country became dependent on India. Nepal depends on petroleum imported and refined by India. The country's total earning by export is not enough to pay even the import bill of petroleum. Average import of petroleum in the past three fiscals is Rs 122 billion.

Bilateral relation with India is at its lowest in history and the real picture of our fragile situation is clearly visible. We are already in hot water. But these problems didn't develop in a single day, a single month or a year. Agenda of the fragile economy never came to fore as political leaders either knew little of it or were busy with their petty affairs and no one cared.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce and Supplies is these days among the least preferred ministries for leaders. Barring few, most commerce and supply ministers were Madhesh-based leaders and now the same leaders are protesting to cripple Nepali trade.

The country must realize the importance of self-dependence for ours is a landlocked country. Our strength is agricultural products. There is also an opportunity for earning foreign currency after value addition. Government could not retain youth in agriculture in the absence of appropriate technology. Nor is there market connectivity for agriculture produce and competitive supply chain. Due to various factors including energy, manufacturing industries have lost competiveness and agriculture output has declined. Youths migrated for jobs and dependence gradually increased and we became progressively weaker.

Tuesday's rumors should be taken as a wake-up call and policies and strategies devised to increase exports, but such endeavors should not be similar to those followed by Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) 2010, which has had little impact even with its identification of products with competitive advantage. We expected at least a minor rise in export of NTIS-listed 19 products, but to no avail. Export of silver jewelry, ginger, lentil and medicinal herbs have declined.

India blockaded Nepal in 1989. Recent events have refreshed those bad memories. It is high time we devised strategies to tackle the issue as well as employed the youth population. Nepal was net exporter of dozens of agro-products and finished goods but now we are importing the same items from India and other countries. Everything ranging from agro products to spare parts and from petroleum products to garments are imported from India. Government should look for more sustainable measures to keep the economy humming.

Back in 1989, India blockaded Nepal for over a year over the issue of Nepal purchasing arms from China without first consulting it. The relations became strained and the culmination was fall of Panchayat system; the King had to, eventually, accept multiparty parliamentary system. Nepal as a landlocked country had sought privileges of transit rights as UN charter and India's demand of a single treaty was rejected.

Soon after India's economic sanctions, our country experienced serious deficiencies of goods such as coal, fuel, oil, medicine, spare parts and other essentials. Although immediate effect in rural life was only reflected in shortage of salt and kerosene, I can now only imagine the impact on cities. The country's growth rate plummeted from 9.7 percent in 1988 to 1.5 percent in 1989, largely due to the blockade.

Following blockade rumors on Tuesday UCPN Maoist Pushpa Kamal Dahal made a farcical remark that Nepalis should ride bicycles if India stops petroleum. Nepali leaders use their heart more than their minds. Had Prachanda said that his party has decided to have a cycle lane in all the new roads, it would have made strategic sense. But the effect of a weeklong blockade today would be tantamount to the impact of over a year's blockade in 1989; our dependence on India has spiked multifold because Nepal has become net importer of rice, livestock and fruits from India. Dependence on petroleum, motor and machinery are unavoidable but we have never bothered to do anything even about the commodities we could produce in our own country. Without economic independence, political independence is meaningless.

The bill of import of agro products run to over Rs 100 billion a year, while school children still study that Nepal is an agricultural country. We imported toothpicks, a non-essential item, worth Rs 21.1 million in the fiscal year 2013/14. Rice worth Rs 55 billion were imported in the last three fiscal years. We produce and sell goods worth Rs 9 but import goods worth Rs 91 for every 100 rupees spent on foreign trade.

Had the youth not become migrant workers, our country would have witnessed a severe food shortage. But they would be toiling to produce food for self-sustainability. A sharp increase in imports but lack of progress in exports is our reality. Worse, exports have for the first time posted negative year-to-year growth.

Trade expert Krishna Raj Bajgain has written that Nepal's trade gap has widened after the introduction of each new trade policy. The phrase 'replace imports' has been coined, plans, and programs are prepared and budget is also spent every year. Small-scale enterprises and entrepreneurs offer the silver lining. There are opportunities for devising long-term planning, for example by downsizing import of petroleum products through greater harnessing of hydropower. But, hydropower, alas, is another failure story in Nepal.

The author is with Republica's business bureau
Twitter: @rudrapangeni

- See more at: http://www.myrepublica.com/opinion/story/28862/here-we-go-again.html#sthash.U1CxQ351.dpuf

Size of remittance has ballooned and the country has become more dependent on India than ever before

People in Kathmandu may not have truly felt the effects of 40-day protest in Tarai until Tuesday. News reports indicating blockade by India was making rounds then. It has made people of Kathmandu panic. Sons ran to hoard petrol at gas stations while mothers crowded the grocery stores for foods and other essentials. This shows that the effects of blockade can be pervasive. This is because of Nepal's lopsided trade balance with India.

Nepal as a landlocked country has access to sea only via India. So Nepal imports worth nearly nine times more than it exports to the southern neighbor. In FY 2014/15, Nepal imported goods worth Rs 774.68 billion while export was Rs 85.31 billion. Import from India was worth Rs 491.65 billion while export to the southern neighbor was only Rs 55.86 billion; in other words, 64 percent of our trade is with India.

Government has cushioned itself on remittance, which also has driven consumerism but the national import-based economy has not benefited in real terms. Almost all entrepreneurs and business people have import portfolios as earning is fast and banks provide an easy finance. The more the size of remittance, the more the country became dependent on India. Nepal depends on petroleum imported and refined by India. The country's total earning by export is not enough to pay even the import bill of petroleum. Average import of petroleum in the past three fiscals is Rs 122 billion.

Bilateral relation with India is at its lowest in history and the real picture of our fragile situation is clearly visible. We are already in hot water. But these problems didn't develop in a single day, a single month or a year. Agenda of the fragile economy never came to fore as political leaders either knew little of it or were busy with their petty affairs and no one cared.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce and Supplies is these days among the least preferred ministries for leaders. Barring few, most commerce and supply ministers were Madhesh-based leaders and now the same leaders are protesting to cripple Nepali trade.

The country must realize the importance of self-dependence for ours is a landlocked country. Our strength is agricultural products. There is also an opportunity for earning foreign currency after value addition. Government could not retain youth in agriculture in the absence of appropriate technology. Nor is there market connectivity for agriculture produce and competitive supply chain. Due to various factors including energy, manufacturing industries have lost competiveness and agriculture output has declined. Youths migrated for jobs and dependence gradually increased and we became progressively weaker.

Tuesday's rumors should be taken as a wake-up call and policies and strategies devised to increase exports, but such endeavors should not be similar to those followed by Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) 2010, which has had little impact even with its identification of products with competitive advantage. We expected at least a minor rise in export of NTIS-listed 19 products, but to no avail. Export of silver jewelry, ginger, lentil and medicinal herbs have declined.

India blockaded Nepal in 1989. Recent events have refreshed those bad memories. It is high time we devised strategies to tackle the issue as well as employed the youth population. Nepal was net exporter of dozens of agro-products and finished goods but now we are importing the same items from India and other countries. Everything ranging from agro products to spare parts and from petroleum products to garments are imported from India. Government should look for more sustainable measures to keep the economy humming.

Back in 1989, India blockaded Nepal for over a year over the issue of Nepal purchasing arms from China without first consulting it. The relations became strained and the culmination was fall of Panchayat system; the King had to, eventually, accept multiparty parliamentary system. Nepal as a landlocked country had sought privileges of transit rights as UN charter and India's demand of a single treaty was rejected.

Soon after India's economic sanctions, our country experienced serious deficiencies of goods such as coal, fuel, oil, medicine, spare parts and other essentials. Although immediate effect in rural life was only reflected in shortage of salt and kerosene, I can now only imagine the impact on cities. The country's growth rate plummeted from 9.7 percent in 1988 to 1.5 percent in 1989, largely due to the blockade.

Following blockade rumors on Tuesday UCPN Maoist Pushpa Kamal Dahal made a farcical remark that Nepalis should ride bicycles if India stops petroleum. Nepali leaders use their heart more than their minds. Had Prachanda said that his party has decided to have a cycle lane in all the new roads, it would have made strategic sense. But the effect of a weeklong blockade today would be tantamount to the impact of over a year's blockade in 1989; our dependence on India has spiked multifold because Nepal has become net importer of rice, livestock and fruits from India. Dependence on petroleum, motor and machinery are unavoidable but we have never bothered to do anything even about the commodities we could produce in our own country. Without economic independence, political independence is meaningless.

The bill of import of agro products run to over Rs 100 billion a year, while school children still study that Nepal is an agricultural country. We imported toothpicks, a non-essential item, worth Rs 21.1 million in the fiscal year 2013/14. Rice worth Rs 55 billion were imported in the last three fiscal years. We produce and sell goods worth Rs 9 but import goods worth Rs 91 for every 100 rupees spent on foreign trade.

Had the youth not become migrant workers, our country would have witnessed a severe food shortage. But they would be toiling to produce food for self-sustainability. A sharp increase in imports but lack of progress in exports is our reality. Worse, exports have for the first time posted negative year-to-year growth.

Trade expert Krishna Raj Bajgain has written that Nepal's trade gap has widened after the introduction of each new trade policy. The phrase 'replace imports' has been coined, plans, and programs are prepared and budget is also spent every year. Small-scale enterprises and entrepreneurs offer the silver lining. There are opportunities for devising long-term planning, for example by downsizing import of petroleum products through greater harnessing of hydropower. But, hydropower, alas, is another failure story in Nepal.

The author is with Republica's business bureau
Twitter: @rudrapangeni

- See more at: http://www.myrepublica.com/opinion/story/28862/here-we-go-again.html#sthash.U1CxQ351.dpuf

Size of remittance has ballooned and the country has become more dependent on India than ever before

People in Kathmandu may not have truly felt the effects of 40-day protest in Tarai until Tuesday. News reports indicating blockade by India was making rounds then. It has made people of Kathmandu panic. Sons ran to hoard petrol at gas stations while mothers crowded the grocery stores for foods and other essentials. This shows that the effects of blockade can be pervasive. This is because of Nepal's lopsided trade balance with India.

Nepal as a landlocked country has access to sea only via India. So Nepal imports worth nearly nine times more than it exports to the southern neighbor. In FY 2014/15, Nepal imported goods worth Rs 774.68 billion while export was Rs 85.31 billion. Import from India was worth Rs 491.65 billion while export to the southern neighbor was only Rs 55.86 billion; in other words, 64 percent of our trade is with India.

Government has cushioned itself on remittance, which also has driven consumerism but the national import-based economy has not benefited in real terms. Almost all entrepreneurs and business people have import portfolios as earning is fast and banks provide an easy finance. The more the size of remittance, the more the country became dependent on India. Nepal depends on petroleum imported and refined by India. The country's total earning by export is not enough to pay even the import bill of petroleum. Average import of petroleum in the past three fiscals is Rs 122 billion.

Bilateral relation with India is at its lowest in history and the real picture of our fragile situation is clearly visible. We are already in hot water. But these problems didn't develop in a single day, a single month or a year. Agenda of the fragile economy never came to fore as political leaders either knew little of it or were busy with their petty affairs and no one cared.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce and Supplies is these days among the least preferred ministries for leaders. Barring few, most commerce and supply ministers were Madhesh-based leaders and now the same leaders are protesting to cripple Nepali trade.

The country must realize the importance of self-dependence for ours is a landlocked country. Our strength is agricultural products. There is also an opportunity for earning foreign currency after value addition. Government could not retain youth in agriculture in the absence of appropriate technology. Nor is there market connectivity for agriculture produce and competitive supply chain. Due to various factors including energy, manufacturing industries have lost competiveness and agriculture output has declined. Youths migrated for jobs and dependence gradually increased and we became progressively weaker.

Tuesday's rumors should be taken as a wake-up call and policies and strategies devised to increase exports, but such endeavors should not be similar to those followed by Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) 2010, which has had little impact even with its identification of products with competitive advantage. We expected at least a minor rise in export of NTIS-listed 19 products, but to no avail. Export of silver jewelry, ginger, lentil and medicinal herbs have declined.

India blockaded Nepal in 1989. Recent events have refreshed those bad memories. It is high time we devised strategies to tackle the issue as well as employed the youth population. Nepal was net exporter of dozens of agro-products and finished goods but now we are importing the same items from India and other countries. Everything ranging from agro products to spare parts and from petroleum products to garments are imported from India. Government should look for more sustainable measures to keep the economy humming.

Back in 1989, India blockaded Nepal for over a year over the issue of Nepal purchasing arms from China without first consulting it. The relations became strained and the culmination was fall of Panchayat system; the King had to, eventually, accept multiparty parliamentary system. Nepal as a landlocked country had sought privileges of transit rights as UN charter and India's demand of a single treaty was rejected.

Soon after India's economic sanctions, our country experienced serious deficiencies of goods such as coal, fuel, oil, medicine, spare parts and other essentials. Although immediate effect in rural life was only reflected in shortage of salt and kerosene, I can now only imagine the impact on cities. The country's growth rate plummeted from 9.7 percent in 1988 to 1.5 percent in 1989, largely due to the blockade.

Following blockade rumors on Tuesday UCPN Maoist Pushpa Kamal Dahal made a farcical remark that Nepalis should ride bicycles if India stops petroleum. Nepali leaders use their heart more than their minds. Had Prachanda said that his party has decided to have a cycle lane in all the new roads, it would have made strategic sense. But the effect of a weeklong blockade today would be tantamount to the impact of over a year's blockade in 1989; our dependence on India has spiked multifold because Nepal has become net importer of rice, livestock and fruits from India. Dependence on petroleum, motor and machinery are unavoidable but we have never bothered to do anything even about the commodities we could produce in our own country. Without economic independence, political independence is meaningless.

The bill of import of agro products run to over Rs 100 billion a year, while school children still study that Nepal is an agricultural country. We imported toothpicks, a non-essential item, worth Rs 21.1 million in the fiscal year 2013/14. Rice worth Rs 55 billion were imported in the last three fiscal years. We produce and sell goods worth Rs 9 but import goods worth Rs 91 for every 100 rupees spent on foreign trade.

Had the youth not become migrant workers, our country would have witnessed a severe food shortage. But they would be toiling to produce food for self-sustainability. A sharp increase in imports but lack of progress in exports is our reality. Worse, exports have for the first time posted negative year-to-year growth.

Trade expert Krishna Raj Bajgain has written that Nepal's trade gap has widened after the introduction of each new trade policy. The phrase 'replace imports' has been coined, plans, and programs are prepared and budget is also spent every year. Small-scale enterprises and entrepreneurs offer the silver lining. There are opportunities for devising long-term planning, for example by downsizing import of petroleum products through greater harnessing of hydropower. But, hydropower, alas, is another failure story in Nepal.

The author is with Republica's business bureau
Twitter: @rudrapangeni

- See more at: http://www.myrepublica.com/opinion/story/28862/here-we-go-again.html#sthash.U1CxQ351.dpuf

Milk for All

Around 40,000 liters of milk goes to waste every day as the demand for milk products has shrunk

You offer coffee or tea to your guest, but what would you think if someone offers you a cup of milk instead? A few may consider it normal, while many others may shrug their shoulders. But why am I talking about offering milk instead of tea and coffee as a social etiquette?

Drinking milk can make your bones strong. More than that, you can also earn philanthropic virtues if you drink milk as this act will also help farmers. Their production won't go to waste. With the unforeseen milk holiday imposed by the dairy operators, milk has been wasted in recent days. Milk holiday is effective two to three days a week. Milk is losing its popularity as people are reluctant to drink milk and milk products.

Milk producers are small-scale farmers. Therefore, drinking milk can have a big impact. The daily milk surplus is at about 40,000 liters per day, according to National Dairy Development Board (NDDB). If you drink additional 250 ml milk a day, the milk demand will increase to 650,000 liter per day, supposing that all residents of Kathmandu Valley start drinking milk. Do the math, if each valley denizens drinks 250 ml milk a week. It will alone not only end current milk holiday but will create additional daily demand for 50,000 liter.

Even factoring in this increased consumption, per capita milk consumption will be only 52 liters per year, half the Asian average. Per capita milk consumption in Finland, at 361 liters, is the highest in the world. The World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization recommend drinking 91 liters of milk in a year for healthy life. But, in Nepal, all the excess milk is going to waste.

Government officials blame change in people's food habits as milk products are among the least favorite food items these days. Food experts say milk consumption has been limited to drinking milk tea and coffee. Many prefer black tea. Farmers are now running from post to pillar to find market of their products. Many are startups in cow-farming. Changed food habits and availability of an array of alternative cuisines is behind decreased interest in milk.

However, the main reason for people's lack in interest in milk is that dairies mix imported milk powder in animal milk. As Europe has banned exporting dairy products to Russia and the products are routed to Asia, it has resulted in a sharp plunging of prices.

The country imported milk and milk products worth Rs 2 billion in last fiscal year; this includes children's feed and milk powder. Dairy industries can tap the market and at least substitute import. However, they are uninterested in innovation and only look to make fast bucks with minor processing of milk they obtain from farmers. They earn handsome profit. Chitwan Milk Private Limited, the largest milk powder producer in the country, has pulled down its shutters citing sustained loss over recent years.

Per day milk deficit was 130,000 liters a year ago, but right now we produce in excess and it goes to waste. Farmers neither have capacity to store milk and nor can they consume the produced amount on their own. Dairy operators, on the other hand, say the current slump in demand owes to the earthquakes. They also have huge stocks of ghee made out of milk purchased during the quake when the milk was not sold. Now they are building connections with the authorities demanding up to 90 percent refund of Value Added Tax from the current 50 percent refund.

The government policy is to increase production. Artificial insemination and fodder mission has accelerated production in the last four years but farmers complain that the government has no marketing plan for milk and milk products. The government should now try to make cow farming competitive through cost reduction. The lean season comes to end at mid-September and peak season ahead means more milk holidays.

Failing to address the problem on time will result in shutdown of many startups and many may lose self-employment. Restrictions on import of milk powder could be an immediate measure but other sustainable measures like marketing milk and its products and increasing consumption should be adopted. Milk producers should also enter the market with ready-to-drink bottled milk along with other milk products so that consumers may have alternatives to aerated drinks in every shop. The government should encourage dairies to come up with promotional messages to increase dairy production through subsidized promotional campaigns.

A proposal of exporting milk to Bihar, India is under deliberation in the cabinet. However, this is only a short-term measure. Boosting consumption is the only sustainable solution as the global price of milk products is in the decline. The government can start by asking security forces to consume fresh milk in place of imported powder milk. The general public too should start drinking local milk and consuming local milk products.

The author is with Republica's business bureau
rudra.pangeni@gmail.com - See more at: http://www.myrepublica.com/opinion/story/28062/milk-for-all.html#sthash.W3AJAnSR.dpuf

संबिधान संशोधन गर्न मिल्छ तर द्रुतमार्गमा गरिने सम्झौता अपरिवर्तनीय

संबिधान संशोधन गर्न मिल्छ तर द्रुतमार्गमा गरिने सम्झौता अपरिवर्तनीय
रुद्र पंगेनी
जारी संविधान लेखनमा केही त्रुटि हुन गए वा समयसापेक्ष बनाउनु परे संशोधन गर्न मिल्ने व्यवस्था संविधानमै राखिएको छ । तर भौतिक पूर्वाधार तथा यातायात मन्त्रालयले काठमाडौ लाई तराइसँग जोड्ने द्रुत मार्ग निर्माण गर्न दिन भारतीय प्रबद्र्धक आएल एण्ड एफएस सहितको कन्सोर्टियमसँग कन्सेससन सम्झौताका लागि निगोसियसन वार्ता गरिरहेको छ । यो सम्झौता ३० बर्षसम्म अपरिर्वनीय हुन्छ अर्थात् पुरा एक जेनेरेसन सम्म कायम रहन्छ ।
संविधान बनाउँदा शब्द शब्द केलाइदैछ । शब्द शब्दमा बार्गेनिङ् चले र चल्दैछ । तर यस सम्झौताका निम्ति निगोसियसनमा बसेका सरकारी कर्मचारी र केही विज्ञहरु आफ्नो विचारसमेत निर्धक्क भएर राख्न सकेका छ्रैनन्, केहीले त्यस्मा प्रबद्र्धकले जे भन्छन् त्यसैमा हो मा हो मिलाइरहेका छन् । । प्रबद्र्धकले डिपिआरमा परियोजना लागत रु १११ अर्ब उल्लेख गरेको छ तर यो लागत बढी भयो भनेर धेरैले प्रश्न उठाएका छन् । लागत बढी देखाएर प्रबद्र्धकले नाफा धेरै पाउने ध्येय राख्नु स्वाभाविक हो ।
तर निगोसियसनमा लागत घटाउने कुरा समेत ठटेर नराखिएको सम्बद्ध कर्मचारीहरु बताउँछन् । सरकारले पाउने रोयल्टीको कुरा पनि फितलो छ डगेर कुरा राखिएको छैन । सरकारले त्यही बेलुनजस्तो फुलाइएको लागतमा आधारित प्रबद्र्धकलाई तिर्नुपर्ने बाषर््िाक न्यूनतम राजश्व (एमआरजी) रु १५.५ अर्ब को गणना हुँदैछ । एमआरजी ७६ किमि मार्गबाट आवतजावत गर्ने सवारीसाधनबाट उठेको टोल निक्कै कम हुने अनुमान छ । टोलबाट उठाएर आएपछिको रु १५.५ अर्ब मा हुने अपुग सरकारले भर्नुपर्छ बर्षैपिच्छे । प्रबद्र्धककै भनाईलाई मान्ने हो भने पनि बाटो चलेपछिको कम्तीमा पहिलो ६ बर्षमा कम्तीमा रु २३ अर्ब अर्थात् बार्षिक झण्डै रु ४ अर्ब तिर्नुपर्छ । तर २०२० मा १८,४४३ र २०२२ मा २२,४४२ (प्यासिन्जर कार युनिट–पिसियू) पुग्छ भन्ने गणनाको आधारमा रु ४ अर्ब भनिएको हो । हाल अनुमानित ट्राफिक ४,५०० हाराहारीमा भएको बताइन्छ । सामान्यतया ट्राफिक बार्षिक वृद्धिदर ५ देखि ७ प्रतिशतले हुने मानिन्छ तर प्रबद्र्धकले दई बर्षमा ८३ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि हुने भनेको छ । महंगो टोलदरले ट्राफिक वैकल्पिक बाटोमा जाने कुरालाई पनि नकार्न सकिदैन ।
यो एमआरजीको रकम भनेको गतबर्षको मुलुकको कुल निकासी मूल्यको १८ प्रतिशत हो र उक्त रकम गतबर्ष मुलुकले अलैची, तयारी पोसाक र गलैचा बेचेर कमाएको कुल (रु १५ अर्ब) भन्दा बढी होे । सातौं बर्षमा नै पर्याप्त ट्राफिक कुद्ने र एमआरजी भन्दा रकम उठ्ने कुरा आयोजना प्रमुख सत्येन्द्र शाक्य बताउँछन् । यो कुरा प्रबद्र्धकका एमडी के रामचन्दले पनि त्यसै भनेका छन् । रामचन्दको कुरा मान्ने हो भने पनि ६ बर्षपछि नै नेपाल सरकारले एमआरजी तिर्नुनपर्ने हुन्छ । उनकै कुरालाई मानेर एमआरजी लाई ६ बर्षमै सीमित गर्नुपर्छ । प्रबद्र्धकले आफ्नै कुराका आधारमा ६ बर्षपछि टोल आफै उठाउने जिम्मा नलिई  सरकारसँग अरु थप बर्षका लागि एमआरजी मागिरहन्छ भने आयोजना विकास गर्दैन कि भन्ने शंकामा बल मिल्छ । पहिलो ६ बर्ष जनताले तिरेको करबाट परियोजनालाई आर्थिक रुपमा सम्भब बनाउन का लागि मान्य हुन सक्छ तर २५ बर्षसम्म हुम्ला र डोल्पाका गाडीको अनुहारै नदेखेका जनताले तिरेको करबाट राज्यले प्रबद्र्धकलाई रकम भर्न जायज भन्नेहरु राज्यप्रति धोकेबाज हुुन् । स्मरणीय छ आज उक्त रकम दिने भनेर निर्णय भएमा आज जन्मेको बच्चा तीस बर्ष नभएसम्म कुनै परिवर्तन गर्न मिल्दैन अर्थात् मुलुकले तिरिरहनुपर्दछ ।
कुरा गम्भीर छन्, दीर्घकालीन प्रभाव पार्ने पनि । तर भौतिक पुर्वाधार सचिबलगायत निगोसियसनमा बस्नेले आफ्नो विवेक भन्दा पनि प्रबद्र्धकको बोली, तर्क र भाषा नै हुबहु कपि पेष्ट गरी बोल्छन् । सरकारको बटमलाइन नै स्पष्ट देखिदैन । राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगले ‘राष्ट्रको हितमा हुनेगरी निर्णय गर्नू भन्ने’ निर्देशन भन्दै खास स्पष्ट र मूर्त जवाफ दिएको छैन । मन्त्रालयमा सूचना माग्दा गोप्य राख्नपर्छ भन्छन्, प्रबद्र्धकको धारणा हुबहु बोकेर हिड्न प्रचार–प्रसार गर्न नैतिकताले दिने तर सरकारको धारणा राख्न नसक्नेले अर्को एक सन्ततिलाई प्रभाव पार्ने आयोजनामा निर्णय क्षमता राख्छन् कि राख्दैनन् भनिरहनु नपर्ला । एमआरजी गैरकानुनी भएता पनि यो परियोजनाका लागि मात्रै पहिलो ६ बर्षका लागि लागू हुने गरी कानुन बनाइनुपर्दछ ।
जेजस्तो सर्त भएपनि सम्झौता गरिहाल्नुपर्छ भन्नेमा मन्त्री विमलेन्द्र निधि, एकदुई जना कर्मचारी र टिका लगाएर ल्याइएका विज्ञहरुबाहेक कोही निर्धक्क छैनन् । निगोसियसनका कर्मचारी भ्रष्टाचारमा परिने भयमा छन् । इओआई, आरएफपी कही कतै ठेक्काको सर्तमा नलेखिएको रु ७५ अर्ब ऋण दिने कुरामा लिखित सम्झौता नै गराइसकेका छन् मन्त्रीले प्रबद्र्धकसँग, जुन गैरकानुनी सम्झौताको कागज लुकाइएको छ । मन्त्री विमलेन्द्र निधिलाई आफू मन्त्री छँदै यो काम सकाउने धुन छ । मन्त्री भएको २० महिना भैसक्यो उनको यति हतारो अन्य तमाम काम नभएका कुनै पनि परियोजनामा थिएन । यसमा किन हतारो गर्दैछन् निगोसियसनमा बस्ने कर्मचारीहरुबीच आजभोलि कुरा हुन्छ । मन्त्रालयका केही उच्च पदाधिकारी निगोसियसनबाट अलग छन् । निर्माण महाशाखाका सहसचिब रविन्द्रनाथ श्रेष्ठ, योजना महाशाखाको सहसचिब देवेन्द्र कार्की यसमा सहभागी नै छैनन् । कारणमा श्रेष्ठ डिपिआरको जिम्मा दिनेबेलासम्म निगोसियसन टिमको नेतृत्व गर्थे तर उनको तर्कपूर्ण र वास्तविक कुरा मन्त्रीलाई मन परेन हाल उनको ठाउँमा सहसचिब बिष्णु ओम वादे छन् । श्रेष्ठको टिममा भएका एकाधबाहेक विनासूचना थुप्र्रै कर्मचारीलाई मिटिङ्मा बोलाउन छाडियो अथवा बाहिर राखियो । अघिल्लो हप्ता आन्तरिक बैठकमा सडक विभागका एकजना इन्जिनियरले कानून मन्त्रालयका प्रतिनिधिका कुरामा सही थाप्दा मन्त्री निधिले उनलाई अनावश्यक विषयमा बोलेको भन्दै ठाडै हप्काए । यसैगरी अर्थ र कानूनका प्रतिनिधिहरु आवश्यक परेमा मात्र बोलाइने सूचिमा छन् । जबकि निजी लगानी तथा पूर्वाधार विकास ऐनले कुनै पनि पिपिपि आयोजनामा २५ प्रतिशत मात्र लगानी गर्न मिल्छ । रु ७५ अर्ब प्रबद्र्धकलाई दिने भनेको ऋण र सरकारले यसअघि नै कबोल गरेको रु १५ अर्ब अनुदानले सरकारको लगानी कुल लागतको ८१ प्रतिशत लगानी गर्ने कुरा गैरकानुनी छ । १५ अर्ब अनुदानको कुरा अघिल्लो सालको बजेट बक्तव्यमा मात्रै छ र त्यो पनि कानुन भइसकेको छैन । कानुन संशोधनको तयारी समेत गरिएको छैन तर कन्सेसन अग्रिमेन्टको डकुमेन्टको गोप्य तयारी किन हुँदैछ ? निगोसियसनमा बस्नेले समेत नबुझेको कुरा हो यो । अर्थ र कानून सचिबले निगोसियसन गर्नका लागि केही औपचारिक राय तथा जानकारी नमागिएको यो लेखकलाई बताए । तर दुवै मन्त्रालयका उपसचिब तहका एक एक जना प्रतिनिधि निगोसिएसनमा कहिलेकाही बोलाइन्छ ।
अपारदर्शिता
यी जटिलता र गम्भीर बिषयमा निगोसिएसन चल्दैछ । मन्त्री र भौतिक पूर्वाधार सचिबले आफ्नो आधिकारिक धारणा सार्वजनिक गरेका छैनन् । तर अघिल्लो महिना नेपाल इन्डिया च्याम्बर अफ कमर्स एण्ड इन्डष्ट्रिज (निक्की)ले ‘राम्रो पूर्वाधार, राम्रो कनेक्टिभिटीः काठमाडौ तराई द्रुतमार्ग’  विषयमा अन्तक्र्रिया आयोजना गरेको छ । कार्यक्रममा बोल्दै नवनियुक्त भौतिक पूर्वाधार सचिब गजेन्द्र कुमार ठाकुरको कुरा सुन्दा उनी कम्पनीप्रति कति वफादार छन् भन्ने कुरा स्पष्टै बुझिन्थ्यो । यो परियोजनाले नेपाल सरकारलाई यति फाइदा र उति फाइदा हुन्छ भनिरहेका थिए जहाँ आएल एण्ड एफएसका प्रतिनिधिहरु पनि थिए । यस्तो लग्दथ्यो मानौ उनी नेपाल सरकारलाई प्रबद्र्धक भएर सम्झाइरहेका थिए । उनका धारणा सार्वजनिक गर्न किन उनी मन्त्रालयमै छलफल तथा पत्रकार सम्मेलन गर्न सक्दैनन्? अर्को एक पुरै जेनेरेशनलाई प्रभाव पार्ने परियोजनाका विभिन्न विषय उठिरहँदा किन मन्त्रालयले अरुको कार्यक्रम प्रयोग गरेर आफ्नो धारणा राख्न खोजेको?
पिपिपि परियोजनाको विशेषता भनेको पर्याप्त प्रतिस्पर्धा गराउने र निजी क्षेत्रको लगानीमा पूर्वाधारको निर्माण तथा सञ्चालन गराई लगानीकर्तालाई लाभांश र जनतालाई अधिकतम सुविधा दिने भन्ने हो । तर यो परियोजनाको आशयपत्र आह्वान गर्दा १ महिनाको लागि मात्र समय दिइयो त्यो पनि पोहोरको दशै तिहारको छुट्टि पारेर अनि पछि केही विदेशी प्रबद्र्धकले समय थपका लागि अनुरोध गर्दा यसअघिको नजिरलाई लत्याएर थपिएन । रु २० लाख र रु १११ अर्बको खरीद गर्दा एउटै समय दिइयो । कन्सेसन पिरियडमा प्रतिस्पर्धा गराउनुपर्नेमा परियोजनाको लागतमा विडिङ गरियो । अहिलेको प्रबद्र्धकसहित तीन निवेदन परेको थियो ।
रु ७५ सहुलियत ऋण
हालैको एक निगोसियसन बैठकमा नेपाल सरकारका प्रतिनिधिले भारत सरकारबाट ल्याएको ऋण निजी प्रबद्र्धकलाई किन दिने भन्ने प्रश्न राखेपछि प्रबद्र्धकले उनीहरुले नै उक्त ऋण नेपाल सरकारलाई भारतबाट मागेर ल्याइदिएको हो भन्नेसम्मको कुरा राखे । ययसलाई हस्तक्षेप नभनेर के भन्ने । जसले गर्दा यो ऋण भारतमा इष्ट इन्डिया कम्पनी बनी पसेर ब्रिटिशले शासन चलाएजस्तो गर्न खोजिदैछ नेपालमा भन्नेहरुको मतमा बल मिलेको छ । नेपालीले तिरको करबाट ऋण तिर्ने हो भन्न पनि सरकारमा बसेकाले नसक्ने अवस्था छ ।
केही हप्ताअघि मन्त्री निधिले अर्थमन्त्री रामशरण महत्कोमा एक आयोजना वारेमा छलफल राखेका थिए । महत्ले त्यति ठूलो रकम कसरी दिन सकिन्छ भन्ने प्रश्न तेस्र्याए । निधि आफैले त्यहीबाट भारतीय सरकारका कोही प्रतिनिधिसँग मोबाइलमा कुरा गरी ऋण लिने निधो भएको बताए । यसले नै देखाउँछ यति ठूलो रकम ऋण दिने कुरा कति हल्का रुपमा लिइदैछ मुलुकका लागि । लागत रकम घटाउन बजारबाट लिइने ऋणभन्दा सस्तो यो सहुलियतपूर्ण ऋण दिने भएपछि प्रोजेक्टको लागत उल्लेख्य घट्नुपर्ने हो तर घटाउने प्रस्ताव पनि निडर भएर राख्न सकेका छैनन् । सस्तो दरको ऋण दिइसके पनि लागत रकम अझै घटेको छैन किनकि बजारको व्याजदरभन्दा भन्दा यो करीब चारगुणा व्याज सस्तो पर्दछ । एडिबीले २००८को फिजिबिलिटी अध्ययनलाई २०१० मा अप्डेट गरेको र त्यसले फोर लेनको लागत ७१ अर्ब मात्रै प्रक्षेपण गरेको थियो ।
निक्कीको कार्यक्रममा एमडी रामचन्दले प्रोजेक्टबारे प्रस्तुति गर्ने क्रममा शुरुमै नेपाल सरकारले आफूहरुलाई ७५ अर्ब सहुलियत दरमा ऋण उपलब्ध गराउने कुरा सहमत भैसकेको छ भन्ने कुरा सत्य बोलेका रहेछन् जुन कुरावारे छलफलमाका त्यस्तो सम्झौता कहाँ र कहिले भयो भन्ने प्रश्न उठेपछि उनी बोल्न चाहेनन् तर भारतीय राजदूत रञ्जित रेले कुरा मिलाएर भारत सरकारले नेपाल सरकारबाट औपचारिक अनुरोध आइसकेपछि मात्र ऋणबारे निर्णय लिइने बताए । रामचन्दले गोप्य कुरा खोलेका रहेछन् भन्ने अहिले बुझिदैछ । मन्त्रालयले त्यो ऋण दिन सकिने भनी सम्झौता गरिसकेको भन्ने बुझिन्छ र त्यसकै अधारमा दाश्रो चरणको निगोसियसन सकिइसकेको छ । यद्यपि यसमा पन्छिने ध्येयले अर्थ मन्त्रालयले यो विषय भौतिक पूर्वाधार मन्त्रालयको भन्ने तथा भौतिक योजना मन्त्रालयले अर्थले त्यो ऋण दिने निर्णय गरी पत्र पठाइसकेको दाबी गर्ने गरेका छन् । 
अबको बाटो
डेभलपरसँग वार्ता चलिराखेको बेलामा निगोसियसन रोक्नुस् भन्ने मेरो धारणा हँुदै होइन । ५९ मिनेटमै यात्रा गरिसकिने ७६ किमि दु्रतमार्गले पेट्रोलियम आयातमा कमी ल्याउन, टोल अहिले भनिएभन्दा सस्तो गर्नेहो भने धेरै गाडी यहीबाटो गुड्नेछन् । ढुवानी खर्च र समय घट्न गई विभिन्न सामग्री सस्तो हुने, व्यवसायको लागतमा कमी आउने प्रचुर सम्भावना छ ।
तर यसको विकास गर्न प्रबद्धृकलाई सबैथोक सविधा अर्थात् सस्तो व्याजमा ठूलो परिमाणमा ऋण पनि दिने, सरकारले शेयर पनि हाल्ने, निर्माण अवधिमा मूल्य वृद्धि भए वढेको मूल्यवृद्धि पनि व्यहोर्ने र वार्षिक १५.५ अरव रुपैयां २५ वर्षसम्म नाफाको पनि प्रत्याभूति गर्ने कार्य कदापि गर्नु उपयुक्त हुंदैन ।
निगोसियसनको बैठक बस्दा प्रबद्र्धकको खर्चमा पाँचतारे होटलमा बस्न हुदै हुँदैन । र यो निगोसियसनका लागि विज्ञ तथा परामर्शदाता विज्ञापनमार्फत् नियुक्ति गरिनुपर्दछ हाल त्यसो गरिएको छैन । परामर्शमा बस्ने जोकोहीले आफ्नो धारणा खुलेर राख्न नपाउने भए उनीहरुले मुलुकको भलो हुने गरी निर्णय गर्न सक्दैनन् । मन्त्रीज्यू तपाईले गरिरहनुभएको निगोसियसनको परिणाम (ठूलो नोक्सानी हुने सम्भावना) कति ठूलो हुन्छ,, भन्ने कुरा कमै सोच्नुभएको कुरा तपाईका गराईले देखिन्छ । तपाई व्यक्तिलाई यो निगोसियसनले फाइदै होला तर तपाईको पार्टी नेपाली कांग्रेसले इतिहासमै कलंकित वा वद्नाम हुन सक्ने सम्भावना पनि उत्तिकै छ । पार्टीले यस्तो संवेदनशील बिषयमा समयमै नसोचे÷नबाले कतै यो पार्टीको निर्देशन अनुसार त हुँदैछ कि भन्ने प्रश्न उठ्नेछ । हाल नेकपा एमालेको स्थायी कमिटिले आफ्ना मन्त्रीलाई बोलाएर द्रुतमार्गमा जारी निगोसियसनको विरुद्धमा उत्रन भनी निर्देशन दिएको छ । तर उसको निर्देशन माथिल्लो कर्णालीमा जस्तो हुनु हुदैन । गतबर्ष माथिल्लो कर्णाली पिडिए निगोसियसनका बेला उफ्री उफ्री एमालेका नेता भीम रावलले पार्टीकै निर्देशनमा रिपोर्टर्स क्लबमा जे जे कुरा उठाएर च्याँखे थापे त्यसको २४ घण्टा नबित्दै ती आपत्ति जनाएका बुँदा विना परिवर्तन हुबहु पिडिएमा राखिए अनि एमाले पनि त्यसमा चुप लाग्यो बुझ्न गाह्रो परेन पार्टीहरु कसरी विक्छन् भनेर । माथिल्लो कर्णालीमा एमाओवादीका उर्जा विभाग प्रमुख लीलामणि पोख्रेलले पनि जे जे कुरामा चर्का भाषण गरे तर ती सबै कुरा विनापरिवर्तन पिडिएमा राखिए अनि एमाओबादी पछि चुप लाग्यो खोई के औषधी दिएछन् प्रबद्र्धकले त्यस्तो जादुगरी बोली नै चुप लाग्ने गरी । एमालेलाई पनि फेरि त्यस्तै कुरामा मोहित नहुने सद्बुद्धि पशपतिनाथले दिऊन् ।
 

MULTIPLE FLAWS SEEN IN DATA OF QUAKE VICTIMS

By RUDRA PANGENI 

@rudrapangeni

KATHMANDU, June 5: The government has announced to distribute cash assistance to families, who lost their homes in the earthquake, based on identification cards issued to earthquake victims. It has already collected data from such households. But officials say the process to distribute cash assistance could be affected due to flaws on data of earthquake victims.

Enumerators deployed by government have already created the database of people who lost their homes in the earthquake. But officials say they have not visited affected area after the powerful aftershock of May 12. One enumerator, who was deployed in Dhading, told Republica that he completed data collection before May 12. I haven't visited affected areas after the aftershock of May 12, he said, preferring anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to media.

The government had mobilized a team under the leadership of section officer in each 499 badly-affected village development committees (VDCs). The teams also included at least one engineer.

"Data of earthquake victims is very important as the government is distributing identification cards to earthquake victims based on the data"" Govinda Nepal, member of National Planning Commission (NPC), said.

Cases of over-reporting of damages are also increasing, according to officials. Quake-hit people have been found influencing enumerators to over-report their damages expecting more assistance from the government.

The government has announced to distribute Rs 200,000 to the people who lost their houses in the earthquake. The amount includes Rs 15,000 to be distributed to each affected family for building a temporary shelter.

Interestingly, officials of neither NPC nor Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) -- the central agency for collection, consolidation, processing, analysis, publication and dissemination of statistics -- have any idea about the content of forms that enumerators filled by visiting quake-hit areas.

Bikash Bista, director general of CBS, said they have only been asked to enter data from the forms collected by the enumerators in the central database. "We could have made more scientific forms and also carried out pretest to make data more valid"" Bista said, adding that the forms seem to have been filled up by non-professionals. "We, however, have tried to make the data more reliable as far as possible though cross verification."

NPC is also working on Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA), which is also based on the same data, to present to donor agencies for soliciting their assistance for reconstruction and rehabilitation. A highly placed official of NPC said the data collection process was started in haste and that NPC does not know who prepared the questionnaires used in the forms. ""There was no coordination among line agencies"" the official added, requesting anonymity.

According to officials, local leaders of different political parties tried to influence enumerators to over-report damages, expecting more assistance from the government.

After monitoring relief distribution in affected districts, lawmakers held discussion on Special Committee for Disaster Management, Monitoring and Direction of legislature-parliament last week on ways to control duplication of data of affected households. Speaking at the meeting, Iswari Neupane, a lawmaker of NC, had suggested to the government to introduce a provision that would disqualify a person from receiving assistance if s/he was found over-reporting damages. Stating that Rs 15,000 was insufficient to build temporary shelter, he had drawn the attention of the committee to direct the government to release Rs 50,000 in the first installment.

Many statisticians and experts fear misuse and manipulation of data. Bista said such distribution can be effective only if the government has reliable and evidence-based data with accuracy.

Uttam Narayan Malla, former director general of CBS, said the data of quake-hit families would be very important for relief and rehabilitation works. "There are reports of people putting pressure on enumerators to list their houses with 'minor damages' as 'badly damaged'," said Malla, adding that the data should be cross-verified. "The severity of damage should be categorized with clearer definition."

Many also worry the assessment of economic loss because of earthquake will also be bloated in the absence of authentic data from the affected districts. They stressed the need to collect reliable data for reconstruction and rebuilding of public infrastructures as over-reporting and duplication of data also might fuel corruption.

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